With a federal election looming in Australia, George Megalogenis' Quarterly Essay (QE96) Minority Report - The New Shape of Australian Politics (2024) is a timely exploration of the Australian political landscape.
Megalogenis argues that a shift began in the Australian electorate with the 2010 election and the end of the historic 40-40-20 rule. This rule held that Labor and the Coalition would each score 40% of the vote and the remaining 20% was made up by minority parties and independents. Indeed the Liberal Party would not survive outside of its decades-long Liberal-National Coalition. The pendulum has swung away from the major parties and it is unlikely to return back to the two-party dominance of the past.
The other shift which has occurred is power moving from Queensland and Western Australia (where the electorate is predominately regional/rural) to more urban, younger and multicultural areas. The dynamic, diverse cities of Melbourne and Sydney will determine the outcome of the next election.
Melalogenis argues that Albanese is pursuing a strategy of building trust and consolidating power in his first term, and then pursuing reform in his second term. But, the failure of the voice referendum (a devastating rejection of our First Nations people that I will never get over), has made Albanese more timid and less ambitious. His opponent is well versed in the politics of 'No' and is growing more Trumpian each day.
The reform success of past governments is explored. Hawke/Keating brought forth Medicare, superannuation, immigration and closer ties with Asia. Gillard created the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). Howard took the GST to the electorate and brought in gun reform. Albanese sought to do this with the Voice to Parliament, but needed the support of the Opposition.
Housing is the big issue in the electorate, especially in Melbourne and Sydney where median house prices have exploded but supply has not kept up with demand. Older generations, especially those who have acquired multiple properties as investments, want to hold and pass down their wealth. Younger generations have long since given up the idea of owning property as they have been priced out of the market. Housing is in need of bold reform, not tinkering at the edges. Alan Kohler spoke of this in his excellent Quarterly Essay 92 - The Great Divide (2023).
Politics requires a vision for the future and a willingness to negotiate to get things done. It is highly likely that whoever wins the next election will face a hung parliament and will need to work with the crossbench. Prime Minister Julia Gillard worked with independents to bring about positive change.
Megalogenis concludes his essay with optimism, sharing his view 'that a hung parliament offers our last best chance to restore purpose to our politics - and policymaking' (p65). We won't have to wait too long for the election to be called and to see whether this view holds up. I hope it does.
Another quality Quarterly Essay - so glad I subscribe to this publication! My review of George Megalogenis' Quarterly Essay 61 - Balancing Act (2016) is also available on this blog.