Sunday 10 March 2024

On the House

Australia is obsessed with property. Whenever people gather, conversations inevitably turn to the cost of housing and the rental crisis. The great Australian dream is a quarter acre block, and given our low population density, one might expect there is plenty of room for everyone to have a roof over their head. Unfortunately, this has not occurred and there is a great divide between those who have a home, and those who do not.

In his Quarterly Essay (QE92) The Great Divide - Australia's Housing Mess and How to Fix It, economist Alan Kohler explores how we ended up here and possible pathways out. Once upon a time, the cost of housing kept up with wage growth. In the 1950s people would have paid about 3.5x the average household income for a home, whereas now it is more like 7-8x.  

Kohler argues that the problem is that housing has 'been turned into speculative investment assets by the fifty years of government policy failure, financialisation and greed that resulted in exploding house prices' (p5). Kohler identifies a supply problem, with insufficient public housing from the 1960s, the lack of medium density housing within close proximity to the urban centres, and the federal/state/local divide on who controls development. While supply has dwindled, demand has grown with Howard government policies giving first home owners grants and cutting capital gains tax.

It is essential that we fix this problem. Homelessness is on the rise and the lack of public housing is horrific. Mortgage stress is significant, and many families who purchased during the pandemic with a low fixed rate, will find themselves in trouble when the fixed rate ends in coming months.

Kohler proposes several solutions to fix this crisis. He looks at addressing negative gearing, link immigration policy to infrastructure development, decentralising housing, building high speed rail to allow for commuters, and more. But he acknowledges that political leadership is needed to make unpopular but necessary decisions. 

I'm a mortgage holder in Sydney, the second most expensive place to buy property on earth where the median price house is well over $1M. If I were to sell my apartment, what I would be able to purchase next would likely be smaller, and farther away from the city.  Reading Kohler's essay, I realised that I am a YIMBY - Yes in my back yard! I believe that diverse communities are essential and that our cities need to be more European with more medium density dwellings catering for a cross section of society, with access to public transport and services. In NSW I can see the Minns' government making steps in this direction, reclaiming and rezoning land for parks and housing, a step in the right direction.