Balance of Power

It is hard to believe that Trump's second presidency is only six months old given the scale of change he has wrought upon the world. In pursuing his 'America First' ideology, Trump has upended the global order and turned his back on old alliances. Through punishing tariffs, drastic immigration crackdowns, and the withdrawal of American overseas aid, Trump has signalled a dramatic repositioning of America's place in the world. 

Hugh White's Quarterly Essay (QE98), Hard New World: Our Post American Future (2025) is a timely exploration of this new world order and the ways in which Australia needs to navigate the changing landscape. 

The Trump world is multipolar in which Russia's ambitions in Eastern Europe and China's objectives in Asia are matched by Trump's aspirations in North America. America's containment strategy has given way. No wonder he wants Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal to form part of his American hegemony. 

White writes:

'That scene in the Oval Office with Zelenskyy perfectly exemplified Trump's vision of America in the world. He rejects the whole idea of America as the global leader, upholding and enforcing international order and promoting American values for the good of the world as a whole. To Trump, America's sole purpose in them world is too to protect America's direct interests in its own security and prosperity". (p11)

Trump's international relations are transactional, all about doing deals and trade offs. People gasped when he proposed a Riveria-style reimagination of Gaza, but this is how a real estate baron sees the world - through hotels, golf courses and casinos. He admires 'strong man' leaders - Putin, Netanyahu, Xi Jinping - and has increasingly distanced himself from the institutions and conventions that keep peace in our world. 

White's exploration of the balance of power in Asia was perhaps the most interesting as he considers where Australia fits in the new world order. He questions the AUKUS arrangement and Australia's dependence on America, arguing that eight subs (if delivered) will not deter Chinese expansion in south east Asia. With Australia trying to solidify relationships with South Pacific island nations through sports and other investments, this may not be enough to secure peace in our backyard. White reckons that Taiwan will be the flashpoint in which China tests the world's resolve - will America back Taiwan? Will Australia join America? Let's hope this fragile peace is not tested.

Over the past few days, as I read this essay, Israel and Iran have gone to war and America bombed nuclear sites. It feels as though the world is on a precipice, and I am increasingly doubtful that the leaders and institutions that prevented nuclear war will prevail. All the more reason to read this essay and gain a better understanding of what is at stake. 

Hugh White is emeritus professor of strategic studies at ANU and author of Australia's Defence White Paper 2000. White has written three previous Quarterly Essays focussed on international relations:

• Power Shift: Australia's Future between Washington and Beijing (QE39) - August 2010
• Without America: Australia in the New Asia (QE68) - November 2017
• Sleepwalk to War: Australia's Unthinking Alliance with America (QE86) - June 2025